Reports

Is the Thoroughbred Racehorse becoming more fragile?

And, what can be done about it?

Summary: Evidence shows the Thoroughbred Racehorse is becoming more fragileThe breakdown problem is proven and getting worse.


Thoroughbred Musculo-Skeletal Fatal Injuries / per start by Year



(Slide of Dr Rick Arthur, California Horse Racing Board)

What is the cause?
•    Drugs? – no, same problem documented in drug free UK, Australia, Hong Kong
•    Inbreeding? – no, investigated in depth by Professor Cunningham and he says no
•    Many theories, nothing proven

It’s not just the breakdowns
•    Decreasing field size decreases betting
•    Lack of durable stars decreases betting
•    In the next slide, note the decrease in field size – green arrow – despite fewer races and more foals
•    Note the decrease in starts per year (red arrow). If you extend that line, a horse will start 0 times in about 50 years time!
 


Fragility Defined
•    More “lametime”
•    Fewer starts per campaign
•    Fewer starts per year
•    Fewer campaigns
•    Fewer years of racing
•    Fewer lifetime starts

The Hong Kong Stats

Hong Kong
•    In the 9 years to 2003

  – Percentage of 3yos and 4yos retiring
  – Has DOUBLED

Are you convinced?
•    There is a clear documented trend to increasing fragility in the Thoroughbred in Australia, England, Hong Kong and the USA.
•    There is anecdotal evidence of an increase in racetrack injuries

Australia

No Lasix, no Bute
•    Same fragility problems
•    Rising fatalities documented

Avalyn Hunter – Causes of Increased Fragility

 There have been many past champions which raced a lot as 2yos and still remained sound at 3 4 5 etc

Kentucky Derby winners which raced at 2, 3, 4 & 5
•    1982 Gato Del Sol won 2 of 8 as 2yo
•    1963 Chateaugay won 2 of 5 as 2yo
•    1962 Decidedly won 2 of 8 as 2yo
•    1961 Carry Back won 5 of 21 as 2yo
•    1959 Tomy Lee won 6 of 8 as 2yo
•    1952 Hill Gail won 4 of 7 as 2yo
•    1951 Count Turf won 3 of 10
•    1949 Ponder won 0 of 4
•    1948 Citation won 8 of 9
•    1946 Assault 9 starts as 2yo
•    1942 Shut Out won 3 of 9 starts as 2yo
•    1941 Whirlaway won 7 of 16 as 2yo
•    1937 War Admiral won 3 of 6 as 2yo

Talkin’ Horses
•    races are run so fast these days. It is so common for the first half-mile in a race today to shade 45 seconds

BUT problems still in more leisurely parts of the racing world eg UK

What is the cause?

BUT trainers are better educated than ever, have more science to help


Is there a solution?
•    Solutions have to start with understanding
•    The Thoroughbred Genomic Model of Dr Ross Staaden provides that understanding
•    That understanding can then suggest research directions and solutions
•    It can test possible solutions, and give some idea of how long to get results
•    It can make some immediate suggestions

Why we need the model
•    To explain why the cause looks like:
  – Racetrack design
  – Training methods
  – Drugs – Lasix, Bute


When everyone understands the causes
•    Show outcomes of all possible solutions
•    Test any new suggested solutions   – Get approximate time line   – Look for “Side effects”


Why we need the model
•    To show intervention is necessary
•    To get cooperation
•    To show that time is running out
•    To make it clear there is no alternative


Why we need the model
•    So we don’t spend more time and money on the wrong research
•    So we don’t spend years on wrong “cures”


Is the problem going to go away?
•    No. The Thoroughbred computer model suggests it will get worse at an increasing rate
•    There will be bad years and good years but the trend will be increasingly UP, ie WORSE


What can be done to save the Thoroughbred?

It is a crisis

What is needed?
•    Understanding
•    Funding
•    Research
•    Apply results
•    A coordinated international approach


UNDERSTANDING NEW TRAINING TECHNOLOGY

Better adaption of the horse’s musculo-skeletal systems.

RESEARCH

Measure forces applied to horses running at speed.